Predictions: Notre Dame vs. Boston College

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish will look to conquer the homeland of Boston College this weekend as the two teams clash at Fenway Park in the annual Shamrock Series game. ND, entering the game ranked 4th in the College Football Playoff rankings, comes in with a 9-1 record and a need to impress the Playoff Committee enough to hold onto a spot in the top 4 with Big 12 teams like Oklahoma and Oklahoma State breathing down their necks. Boston College, on the other hand, comes in with a 3-7 record, hoping to pull off a huge upset in the ultimate sports mecca for Boston fans.

Nov 7, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Boston College Eagles quarterback John Fadule (14) looks for an open receiver during the first half against the Boston College Eagles at Alumni Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

The Eagles’ 3-7 record is almost certainly a product of their atrocious offensive production this season. BC ranks 121st in the nation in scoring (17.3 points per game) and dead last (128th) in total offense, averaging just 277 yards per game. Having played 4 different quarterbacks this season, Boston College will likely start walk-on freshman John Fadule, who leads the team in passing yards this season with 400. Fadule has also completed 54% of his passes and thrown 1 touchdown and 4 interceptions. To put his numbers (and the lesser numbers of the Eagles’ other three QBs) into perspective, Notre Dame’s Malik Zaire had 428 yards, 4 TD, and 0 INT in the 2 games he played this season before breaking his ankle. BC simply does not produce through the air, explaining why their leading receivers, Thadd Smith and Charlie Callinan, have combined for just 391 yards, 24 catches, and 3 TD.

BC will likely try to run the ball and control the clock, keeping the game close and hoping they can catch the ND secondary napping on the occasional play-action pass or trick play. BC running backs Myles Willis (243 yards, long of 45) and Marcus Outlow (241 yards, 1 TD) will carry the brunt of the load, but against an ND defense that has done fairly well against the run, look for the front seven, led by junior and senior captains Jaylon Smith and Sheldon Day, to aggressively penetrate the Eagles offensive line and wreak some havoc in the backfield. And, when they’ve bottled up the run on first and second down, expect senior Romeo Okwara and co. to get a great rush on Fadule and possibly force him into some bad passes. The secondary should be able to take advantage of this, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a couple interceptions on the day from the likes of Russell, Luke, Redfield, Shumate, and Farley.

The Boston College defense is everything that the offense is not. Ranked 3rd in the country in points allowed (14.4 points per game), 1st in total defense (237 yards per game), 1st against the run (71.7 rushing yards allowed per game), and 5th against the pass (164.8 passing yards allowed per game), the Eagles are as daunting of a defense as the Irish will face this season. Led by LBs Steven Daniels, Matt Milano, and Connor Strachan, DBs Justin Simmons and John Johnson, and DL Harold Landry and Mehdi Abdesmad, BC will hope to do as they’ve done all season and completely shut down ND’s potent running game, holding C.J. Prosise and Josh Adams well below their typical outputs. The Irish offensive line will need to bring their A-game, as the Eagles front seven has only allowed one 100-yard rusher all season, giving up 105 yards to Virginia Tech running back Travon McMillian. I expect the Irish to run better than most teams have against BC, but no one should expect Prosise or Adams to put up monster numbers, as this Eagles defense is absolutely for real and will refuse to give up much.

Nov 14, 2015; South Bend, IN, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback DeShone Kizer (14) throws a pass in the fourth quarter against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Notre Dame Stadium. Notre Dame won 28-7. Mandatory Credit: Matt Cashore-USA TODAY Sports

The Notre Dame offense will likely have to beat BC through the air, just as Clemson did in their 34-17 victory earlier this season against the Eagles, when Deshaun Watson threw for 3 TDs and over 400 yards. ND QB DeShone Kizer will need to win the game with his arm, and make smart decisions with the ball against a defense teeming with players adept at forcing turnovers. Will Fuller’s big-play ability will be crucial in taking some pressure off the short-passing and running games, and Torii Hunter Jr. and Chris Brown should be able to make some plays underneath because of that.

Overall, the Notre Dame defense shouldn’t struggle much with an inept Boston College offense. There will probably be one or two mental miscues, as always, but like against Wake Forest, expect very few points from the Eagles. The big story will be ND’s talented, powerhouse offense against BC’s stifling, juggernaut defense. If Kizer can make enough early plays with his arm to stretch the defense, expect Brian Kelly to then pound the ball on the ground in the second half, looking to wear down Boston College, eat clock, and finish the game on the back of Prosise, Adams, and that much-lauded offensive line who is certainly overdue for a dominant game over an excellent foe. I think ND wins this one big, and surprises everyone by how many points they are able to muster against one of the best defenses in the country, making a strong statement to the College Football Playoff Committee.