Predictions: Notre Dame at Stanford

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish football team travels to California for its final game of the 2015 season on Saturday, where they will square off with the Stanford Cardinal in a must-win situation.

The Irish, having dropped to 6th in the latest College Football Playoff rankings after yet another unimpressive showing against an atrocious opponent, enter the contest with a 10-1 record and a need to not only beat the Cardinal, but to look great doing it and also receive some help from favorable upsets in the Big 12 and Big 10.

Stanford, meanwhile, enters the game ranked 9th at 9-2, looking to finish a strong season with a win as they then head to the Pac-12 championship game in search of their 3rd conference title in 4 years.

November 14, 2015; Stanford, CA, USA; Stanford Cardinal running back Christian McCaffrey (5) runs with the football against Oregon Ducks defensive back Glen Ihenacho (25) during the first quarter at Stanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The Cardinal will be slight favorites in the game, and one of the biggest reasons for that is certainly RB Christian McCaffrey. The son of former NFL WR Ed McCaffrey, the sophomore has completely broken out this season, amassing 1546 rushing yards, 2nd in the country to LSU’s Leonard Fournette, who has 1582 yards. McCaffrey has 7 rushing touchdowns and an average of 5.9 yards-per-carry to add to his production on the ground, and has broken off various big plays on the season, showing a great combination of speed, strength, and vision. He’s also a dangerous receiver, leading the Cardinal in receptions with 34 and sitting at second on the team in receiving yards with 416. He’s added 3 receiving touchdowns as well, and so it is without a doubt that Notre Dame defensive coordinator Brian VanGorder’s major priority is to attempt to contain the bonafide Heisman candidate.

To do so, the Irish front seven will need to play a disciplined, fundamental game, as Sheldon Day and co. up front will need to hold the point of attack and allow Jaylon Smith, Greer Martini, and Joe Schmidt to fly to the ball carrier and make tackles. If they can make stops early in possessions and keep the ball out of McCaffrey’s hands as much as possible, ND certainly has a shot at slowing down this offense enough to win the game.

Stanford QB Kevin Hogan is one of the better QBs that Notre Dame has faced this season, throwing for 2231 yards at a 67.2% clip with 19 TD and 7 INT while also rushing for 276 yards and 4 TD. However, there are no overwhelmingly talented receivers on the Stanford roster, as the Cardinal instead have spread the ball around to a group of solid, dependable targets.

Leading that group is WR Michael Rector, who has 27 catches for 423 yards and 4 TD so far this year. TE Austin Hooper (26 receptions, 379 yards, 5 TD) is a huge target with great hands, so the Irish need to find a way to cover him in red zone situations.

Other receivers like Devon Cajuste and Francis Owusu and running back Bryce Love all have the ability to make some plays through the air as well, so the Irish secondary and linebackers will need to come prepared.

The youthful committee filling in for injured senior CB KeiVarae Russell will be the group to watch, as Hogan will likely come at that group early and often. Devin Butler, Nick Watkins, and Nick Coleman will need to play confidently and disciplined in order to make some plays and shut down Hogan’s passing game.

Oct 17, 2015; South Bend, IN, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish wide receiver Will Fuller (7) catches a pass for a 75 yard touchdown against the Southern California Trojans at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

The Stanford defense, meanwhile, is not quite as stingy or physical as in past years, but they remain a talented group. The Cardinal rank 37th in total defense (362 yards allowed per game) and 36th in scoring, giving up 22 points per game.

Where they do appear vulnerable, though, is against the pass, as the 230.7 passing yards per game that they allow ranks them a less-than-mediocre 74th in the country.

With RB C.J.Prosise doubtful to play and Stanford’s defense much stronger against the run (131 yards allowed per game), look for QB DeShone Kizer to be throwing early and often to try and stretch out the defense and force them to pull some players out of the box. WR Will Fuller, who played a very disappointing game against Boston College, will be key in making some big plays downfield to open up the defense. WRs Chris Brown, Torii Hunter Jr., and Amir Carlisle will be equally important to make plays over the middle and on the outside so as to keep the chains moving. Additionally, if there were ever a game for the Irish tight ends to really step up and make some plays, this would be it. Alize Jones especially could find some open space to make plays, and Kelly and Sanford have shown that they aren’t afraid to throw to the athletically gifted freshman.

The Stanford defense, as noted above, is much stronger against the run than the pass. This strength is the product of the Cardinal’s stable of linebackers and defensive linemen, led by LBs Blake Martinez (109 tackles, 4.5 TFL, 1 INT, 4 pass break-ups, 5 QB hurries), Peter Kalambayi (45 tackles, 4.5 TFL, 3.5 sacks, 5 QB hurries), and Joey Alfieri (37 tackles, 6 TFL, 2.5 sacks, 4 QB hurries). Added to those linebackers are a few strong defensive linemen, including Aziz Shittu, Brennan Scarlett, and Solomon Thomas, forming a very formidable front seven.

Stanford also boasts solid safety play from Kodi Whitfield and Dallas Lloyd, although they’re much better in run support than in pass coverage. Cornerbacks Alijah Holder and Ronnie Harris have played solid seasons to-date, but have given up some huge games to talented opposing receivers. The Irish wideouts will be the best group that they’ve faced all season, rivaled only by USC’s group, and so that will certainly be the way ND can find ways to score on the Cardinal, especially if freshman RB Josh Adams is bottled up by their physical front seven.

Overall, it’s going to be a very difficult game for the Irish to win. On the road, against an explosive Heisman candidate, without Prosise and Russell and the myriad other players who have been lost to injury, it will be a lot of adversity to overcome. However, what still gives me a sliver of optimism is that this team has found a way to beat the odds and the obstacles so far this year, and so there’s no reason for me to doubt them just yet. I think Kizer and Fuller are due for huge games, and they will rise to the occasion, as they have before in big moments. The defense will not be perfect, but as in games like USC, they will tighten up and make plays when it matters. And, of course, as the most blindly optimistic Notre Dame football fan I know, I am sure that my slanted view of my team’s chances is very influential in pushing me toward my ultimate prediction.

I think Notre Dame plays a fantastic game on Saturday against a very good Stanford squad, and ultimately wins on the final drive with some gutsy, impressive throws coming from Kizer. The Irish will then have to wait and see how all the other games finished to determine how great their chance is to get into the College Football Playoff. However, I think they at least take care of their own business in impressive fashion in Palo Alto and ultimately give themselves a shot of being jumped back into the top 4.

Maybe I’m delusional and naive, but I think they can do this, and I think there might even occur enough chaos to get them into the College Football Playoff. You gotta believe in something, right? It’s time to believe in this team. They’ve got a little more fight left in them.

Slap the Sign Staff Predictions

GO IRISH