Fiesta Bowl Predictions: Notre Dame vs. Ohio State

At 1 PM ET on New Year’s Day, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish will look to cap a strong-yet-ultimately-disappointing season with a victory over the Ohio State Buckeyes in the Fiesta Bowl.

Both of these teams will be in Arizona with dashed dreams of playing the night before in one of the semifinal games. The Fighting Irish enter the game ranked 8th with a 10-2 regular season record, losing their two biggest games of the season by two points each (24-22 at Clemson, 38-36 at Stanford) and hoping to score their first major bowl victory in over 20 years. The Buckeyes are ranked 7th with an 11-1 record, their lone loss coming to Michigan State on a game-winning field goal as time expired in a late November tilt. They will certainly look to go 12-1 and make a statement that they were indeed one of the best teams in the country this season.

Ohio State’s team is riddled with talent, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Junior defensive end Joey Bosa is one of the most disruptive forces in the country, and is currently projected as a top-5 NFL draft pick in 2016, with various experts saying he will go number 1 overall. Bosa made 47 tackles, 5 sacks, 16 tackles-for-loss, 14 QB hurries, and even one interception in 2015, and many actually considered that an underwhelming year for him. He will need to bring his absolute best against the likes of Notre Dame’s LT Ronnie Stanley, a projected top-10 pick in his own right. Some of Bosa’s help up front will also be absent on Friday, as starting DT Adolphus Washington (49 tackles, 4 sacks, 7 TFL, 1 INT returned for a TD) has been suspended for the game due to being cited for solicitation, and key reserve DT Tommy Schutt will miss the game with a broken foot. Sophomore DL Tyquan Lewis will need to play his best game as well, as the team-leader in sacks (7) will be key, along with freshman Sam Hubbard, in helping Bosa get pressure on ND QB DeShone Kizer.

With the attrition in the Buckeye defensive front, look for the Fighting Irish to really push to establish the running game before airing it out with Kizer. Senior RB C.J. Prosise will be back to join standout freshman Josh Adams, and the two will hope to have plenty of lanes opened up by their mammoth offensive line to allow them to get to the second level of the defense and turn on the after-burners. Ohio State boasts a talented and athletic group of linebackers, however, so expect Raekwon McMillan, Joshua Powell, and Darron Lee to be aggressive and attack the Irish running backs in hopes of forcing ND to throw on their talented secondary, which includes athletic and hard-hitting safeties Vonn Bell and Tyvis Powell, as well as quick, suffocating cornerbacks Gareon Conley and Eli Apple. It will be interesting to see if Conley or Apple can cover ND WR Will Fuller, as no one has proven up to that task this season, save for Mackensie Alexander of Clemson. Expect Notre Dame to send Fuller deep on multiple occasions, and for Kizer to look for Chris Brown and Torii Hunter Jr. on the outside and over the middle on intermediate routes, looking to make it easier on the running game by stretching the Buckeyes out.

On the opposite side, Ohio State’s offensive hopes lie on the sturdy shoulders of junior RB Ezekiel Elliott. The junior rushed for 1672 yards this season, picking up 6.4 yards per carry and accumulating 19 touchdowns. This will easily be the toughest test of the year for the Notre Dame rush defense, which has proven fairly effective against the likes of Stanford’s Christian McCaffrey and Clemson’s Wayne Gallman. Ohio State has a very strong offensive line anchored by senior tackle Taylor Decker, a one-time Notre Dame commit who is now a projected first round pick and plays with a mean streak. The return of senior DT Jarron Jones will be huge for Notre Dame against this rushing attack, as he provides a stout, immense presence in the middle of the line. With Jones, Daniel Cage, and Jerry Tillery holding down the middle, and Isaac Rochell and Sheldon Day wreaking havoc as they have all season, it should allow Jaylon Smith, Joe Schmidt, and the rest of the Irish linebackers ample opportunity to get to Elliott. The key will be bringing the powerful runner down and minimizing missed tackles.

The rest of Ohio State’s offense is inconsistent to say the least, but always dangerous. J.T. Barrett will start at QB, and he is both a capable passer (781 yards, 63.8%, 10 TD, 3 INT) and a dangerous runner (586 yards, 6.4 yards per carry, 11 TD). However, he hasn’t been exceptional this season, and Cardale Jones, the original 2015 starter and hero of the Buckeyes’ championship run last season, has been underwhelming (1460 passing yards, 8 TD, 5 INT, 193 yards rushing, 2 TD) in his time under center. Both quarterbacks have strong arms and the ability to make all sorts of plays with their legs, though, so the Irish will need to play disciplined in order to contain them.

WR Michael Thomas has been OSU’s most productive and consistent receiver this year, with 709 yards and 8 TD. Braxton Miller made a seamless transition to receiver from quarterback this offseason, and has shown to be a dangerous playmaker in Urban Meyer’s offense, with 329 yards receiving and 234 yards rushing, scoring 4 total TD. Covering Thomas and Miller, along with speedy receivers Jalin Marshall and Curtis Samuel (700+ yards and 7 TD combined), will be no easy task for Notre Dame, especially considering senior CB KeiVarae Russell will not play due to a broken foot he suffered in November. Junior Cole Luke will need to play his best game of the season, as will unproven sophomore Nick Watkins, who will start in place of Devin Butler (originally slated to start in Russell’s place), who broke his foot in practice on Monday. Both will need to look for the ball and make some plays, and safeties Matthias Farley and Elijah Shumate will need to play smart and provide help over the top when needed. Farley will start instead of Max Redfield, who was sent home for a violation of team rules. Ohio State will likely run the ball fairly effectively with Elliott, and considering the ND defense’s penchant for giving up big plays and the missing defensive backs, expect a few bombs to Thomas, Miller, Marshall, and Samuel to result in huge gains for the Buckeyes.

Overall, this will be a tough one for Notre Dame. Ohio State easily matches, if not exceeds, the Irish’s level of talent, and Brian VanGorder’s defense has not yet shown it can play four quarters of lights-out football with a unit at full-strength, let alone one missing key parts in the secondary (although getting Jones back at DT will be very helpful). I think the ND offense is strong enough to put up a good amount of points on Ohio State, especially since they should be able to gash the Buckeyes for big plays on the ground and over the top with Fuller. However, unless the Irish defense forces a few turnovers (not their strong suit), I’m not sure the Irish will be able to pull this one out, and can easily see it being another Clemson or Stanford-esque loss, with the offense putting ND in position to win but the team ultimately coming up just short thanks to their inability to stop the opponent from scoring. I think the Irish will ultimately lose this game.

I’ve been the most optimistic homer of a writer this season, and that confidence burned me against Clemson and Stanford. Here’s to hoping that I reverse-jinx the Irish this time, and they overcome some major missing pieces to score a monumental victory that will catapult the program to hopefully greater success on the recruiting trail and on the field next season.

Slap the Sign Staff Predictions

Go Irish!!!