Buy or Sell: Quenton Nelson will be an All-American
By Greg Hadley
Sports Illustrated released its preseason All-American team on Tuesday, and junior guard Quenton Nelson was named to the first team. Should you believe the hype?
Editor’s note: This is the first installment of a series in which we will evaluate different arguments for an assertion that has been made about Notre Dame football.
Quenton Nelson didn’t make SI’s list of the top 100 players in college football earlier this summer, and it seems extremely unlikely he’ll make ESPN’s rankings either (they currently only go up to 41, and he hasn’t appeared yet). But the sports magazine reversed course Tuesday and included Nelson in its preseason All-American squad, despite the junior having just one full season under his belt.
Related Story: ESPN rates Mike McGlinchey as 64th best player in nation
At 6-foot-5 and 325 pounds, Nelson certainly has the size to be one of the best linemen in the country, and he did play every game for the Irish last season, acquitting himself well between the likes of Ronnie Stanley and Nick Martin.
But will he really be a first-team All-American?
Buy: There is absolutely no denying Nelson has the potential to be an All-American. This is the guy who was NFL-strong before he even came to Notre Dame.
Beyond that though, Nelson has earned rave reviews from the Irish coaching staff. Brian Kelly said Nelson is “a rare, rare, rare football player,” and offensive line coach Harry Heistand said his “size and strength and toughness are exceptional,” according to Blue & Gold Illustrated.
In 13 games last season, Nelson played through 724 snaps, the fourth-highest number of all returners for Notre Dame, and Pro Football Focus graded him out as a net positive for the line in his first year of collegiate action. Alongside Mike McGlinchey, Nelson will form probably the best left side of an offensive line in the country, probably because he can do things like this.
Sell: Before we go anointing Nelson as Notre Dame’s 84th consensus All-American, it’s a worthwhile endeavor to consider why Nelson, though undeniably talented, might not be first-team material just yet.
For one, Nelson might not even be the best lineman at Notre Dame. McGlinchey has been generating plenty of preseason buzz himself, and there’s been just one year in the past decade in which one school produced two consensus All-American linemen. It might be an either/or situation, because if one player plays particularly well, it could detract from the number of opportunities (real and/or perceived) the other one gets.
Nelson also had a bit of an issue with an ankle sprain last season. He’s since gotten healthy and gone through spring practice without incident, but bumps and bruises are part of the game and I would be surprised to see him make it through all of 2016 without missing time here and there.
Verdict: Sell, but with caution. Nelson still has three more seasons of eligibility with the Irish (one of only four such players on SI’s list), and while I don’t think he’ll actually stay for a fifth-year, I do believe he needs another season before garnering the type of honors that Zack Martin and Ronnie Stanley racked up.
Next: Notre Dame offensive line ranked No. 1 by Pro Football Focus
Right now, it’s McGlinchey’s time to shine. He’s the senior leader of this line, and the unit’s success, if it comes, will be credited mostly to him, the latest heir in the chain of great Irish left tackles.
That doesn’t mean Nelson isn’t capable of greatness. But what we’ve seen over the past few years is a Notre Dame offensive line that is made up of some great individual parts but fails to produce the top-level results you’d expect. I don’t expect that to change this year, and that’s what will hold Nelson back.