Buy or Sell: Cole Luke will be an elite cornerback in 2016

With 26 career starts, Cole Luke is the most experienced player on Notre Dame’s defense. But can he become the superstar defensive back Brian Kelly wants?

Editor’s note: This is the fourth installment of a series in which we will evaluate different arguments for an assertion that has been made about Notre Dame football.

It’s easy to overlook Cole Luke, who has toiled away in Notre Dame’s secondary for three years now, playing second fiddle to KeiVarae Russell, Matthias Farley and Bennett Jackson. But over those three seasons, he’s played more than anyone on the Irish roster, except for maybe transfer and sixth-year senior Avery Sebastian.

But now that the Irish secondary has no other returning starters from 2015, the pressure is suddenly on for Luke, and stoking the hype is none other than Brian Kelly.

But what constitutes a “really big year”? Will Luke be among the nation’s very best? Will he surpass his 2014 stats, when he intercepted four passes and broke up another 11, tied for third in Notre Dame history?

Buy: Those stats above speak volumes: Luke is smart, talented and physically gifted. At 5-foot-11, 195 pounds, he isn’t the absolute fastest or biggest, but he can do it all and do it well. As Kelly says in the above clip, Luke absolutely has the potential to be a star corner.

What’s surprising about Kelly’s comments is that he’s not talking about Max Redfield, who has been benched and played through plenty of slumps, but Luke, who has been remarkably consistent throughout the past two seasons. If that’s the baseline we’re dealing with, what does an improved Luke look like? Take a look at the clip 40 seconds in.

It’s just one play, but it’s impressive. Luke works the receiver and doesn’t allow himself to get beat physically by the bigger player. As for that little slap of the ball at the end, Kelly said in his media day presser that Luke has done a good job of stepping up and being more vocal as a leader. That’s going to be big for a Notre Dame defense in transition.

Now that Luke is the de facto leader of the secondary, he will be tested each week against the opponent’s top receiver. That’s an opportunity that will make or break him, but considering how Luke has been tested by fire in the past, stepping into the lineup in 2014 after Russell’s suspension, I think he’s up for it.

As for injury worries? Luke has played in every single game for Notre Dame in his career, and all the injury news we’ve heard out of fall camp has not included him in the slightest.

Sell: Notre Dame’s secondary was not a strength in 2015, even with the return of Russell. Brian VanGorder’s aggressive defensive scheme led to plenty of long passes, including some real daggers against USC. And 2014 was even worse by a lot of key measures, including passing yards allowed and team passing efficiency defense. Luke was part of those units, and now the Irish are introducing a whole new inexperience cast alongside him. What’s going to change?

Also, Luke had a frustrating regression in 2015, with his interceptions and passes defended falling by half from 2014. Even his tackles and tackles for loss fell off. As Kelly also noted in his interview above, Luke sometimes seems to have trouble translating his tremendous smarts and ability into on-field production. Perhaps then his 26 straight starts are less indicative of his talent and say more about Notre Dame’s depth or lack thereof at the cornerback position.

And now that Luke will have to cover the top target each game, the possibility arises that perhaps he’s just not up to the challenge. Without top-shelf speed or size, he could be overwhelmed by the likes of JuJu Smith-Schulster.

Verdict: Buy it. This is obviously a make-or-break season for Luke, and Kelly finally has some depth in the secondary, so if he’s not up to the task, Luke could find himself on the bench rather quickly.

But I don’t think that’s going to happen. Luke’s streak of 39 games played says a lot about his durability and dependability. While he may not be freakishly athletic enough to make highlight reel plays on a weekly basis, he is more than good enough to be a lockdown corner. His interception total will probably not top the FBS, but I expect his passes defended and tackle numbers to rise.

Next: Notre Dame football: Irish return to campus for remainder of fall camp

The Jim Thorpe Award, given to the nation’s best defensive back, released its preseason watch list of 39 players in July, and Luke was not on it. That’s a mistake. A Notre Dame player has never won the award, and Luke will almost certainly not change that, but he certainly deserves to be considered among the 40 best defensive backs in the nation.

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