What is Brandon Wimbush’s True Ceiling in 2018?

Much of the success of the Notre Dame offense in 2018 will hinge on the play of senior quarterback Brandon Wimbush.

Last season was Brandon Wimbush’s first year as a starter for the Irish. He proved to be a dynamic playmaker, as he accounted for 30 total touchdowns in 12 games. However, he finished the season with a completion percentage slightly under fifty percent.

Despite all of his highlight-reel plays, his accuracy as a passer was usually the main focus of conversations amongst Irish fans. His inconsistent play resulted in Brian Kelly pulling him in the middle of a couple of games in favor of backup Ian Book.

The coaching staff’s decision to go to Book on multiple occasions — including the final game of the season — led some fans to believe that there might be a quarterback controversy this offseason.

That was not the case.

Wimbush claimed the top spot on the depth chart during Spring practice and is set to be the team’s starter when they open the season against Michigan on September 1st.

So what is Brandon Wimbush’s true ceiling in 2018?

Last season, Wimbush threw for 1,870 total yards and 16 touchdowns. He also added 803 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground. It would be unfair to expect Wimbush to improve in every statistical category in 2018, but it is feasible for him to finish the year with better overall offensive production.

With the departures of running back Josh Adams and two top-ten draft picks on the offensive line, most are expecting the Notre Dame rushing attack to be less effective. The decreased threat of the Notre Dame running backs will make life harder for Wimbush on read options and RPOs. It will be difficult for him to match his rushing stats from a season ago.

On the other hand, Wimbush should feel more comfortable and poised entering his second season in Chip Long’s offense. He could conceivably increase his completion percentage by double-digits. Yes, that is mainly because of his low numbers last season, but a jump like that would make up for any hypothetical dip in his rushing statistics.

Based on his yards per completion in 2017, if Wimbush increased his completion percentage by 10 percent last season, he would have thrown for an additional 378 yards. That would have given him 2,248 total passing yards in twelve games played. It also might have brought him to the 20-touchdown mark.

That may seem like a big leap to make, but I don’t think that represents Brandon Wimbush’s ceiling.

Barring injury, I think Wimbush is capable of completing over 60 percent of his passes and eclipsing 2,500 passing yards this season. He should be more poised and confident heading into year two, and his relationship and familiarity with offensive coordinator Chip Long should be strengthened as well.

For some perspective on how Wimbush is regarded by college football wise guys, I decided to check the preseason Heisman odds. Wimbush’s Heisman odds opened anywhere from 33/1 to 50/1, according to Oddsshark.

These are roughly the same odds he opened with before the start of last season. To me, that means he’s undervalued. However, there’s no chance I would bet money on Wimbush to win the Heisman. Don’t interpret my reluctance to bet on Wimbush to win the Heisman as me saying he’s not good enough to. I think the talent is there, but there is a bit too much uncertainty throughout this Notre Dame offense heading into 2018.

That being said, the starting quarterback at a major college football program always has a chance to win the Heisman trophy. If Wimbush can lead the Irish to a 10, 11, or 12-win regular season with strong performances against top-tier opponents, he will have a very good chance of being invited to New York City this December.