Notre Dame Football: Are the Irish deserving of their Sports Illustrated ranking?

Notre Dame football received some high accolades in a recent poll by Sports Illustrated. Are they deserving of the ranking they received?

The Notre Dame football team played in a College Football Playoff semifinal for the first time last season. At the time, this was good enough for the Irish to be ranked #3 in the country. Notre Dame lost in blowout fashion, and Clemson went on to win a national championship. Us Irish fans were sad, and we quickly turned our attention to the next season as we thought about what could be accomplished by the 2019 squad.

Fast forward to now, and the Notre Dame spring game has come and gone as well as the spring games of all the other potential playoff contenders around the country. Sports Illustrated released its first “Way-to-Early Top 25” list in January after the 2018 season ended. The most recent iteration of the list came earlier this month after the staff at Sports Illustrated had some time to consider what was learned after watching the various spring games.

In Sports Illustrated’s January edition of their “Way-too-Early Top 25,” the Irish landed at #5 behind #4 Ohio State, #3 Georgia, #2 Alabama, and #1 Clemson. This top five remained unchanged in their most recent list compiled after the spring games. The question, however, is how worthy is Notre Dame of the #5 spot? And how close will the Irish be to this spot come the end of next season?

It goes without saying that the Irish have some big shoes to fill on both sides of the ball. Tranquill, Love, Coney, Tillery, Williams, and Boykin are all gone among others, and Notre Dame will be relying on some talented but untested players to fill the various voids.

However, as it stands right now, it is hard not to have the Irish ranked in the top 5. Only four teams were in the College Football Playoff last season. Notre Dame was one of them. And while they did not have a great showing against Clemson, neither did Alabama who is ranked three spots ahead of the Irish. With Ian Book at the helm and him showing improvement in the spring game, I think it is fair to have the Irish at #5 at this point. With no other data than last year’s performance and the spring game to analyze, this ranking makes sense for now.

Speaking of “for now,” what are the chances that the Irish find themselves at #5 or better at the end of next season? In truth, I think the chances are rather slim. It seems that Notre Dame would need to run the regular season table again to cement a spot in the playoff. One close loss to the right team might still give the Irish a chance to sneak into the playoff. But this can never be counted on fully.

An undefeated regular season and another playoff berth would almost certainly put the Irish at least at #5 come next season’s end. A one-loss regular season with a New Year’s Six bowl win would also have to put them close to #5. Two losses probably drops them out of the top five come the end of the season.

Looking at Notre Dame’s schedule, a 2-loss season seems more likely than not. Away games against Georgia, Michigan, and Stanford look daunting. Regardless of how Michigan and Stanford are fairing by the time Notre Dame comes to town, these are rivalry games where anything can happen. As for Georgia, their talent is obvious. But there is also the added element of the Bulldogs feeling like Notre Dame stole the last College Football Playoff spot from them last season.

Vegas has Notre Dame at 9.5 for their over/under win total. Nine wins would not put the Irish at #5 or better come January 2020.  This line seems like a fair assessment considering who is on the schedule for the Irish next year. Then again, this time last year many of us felt that Notre Dame’s schedule looked rather daunting as well. And we all know what the Irish ended up doing with that seemingly daunting schedule.