Notre Dame Football: Two reasons why the Irish will make the playoff and two why they won’t

While there is reason for optimism for the Notre Dame football team, there are also questions. Here’s where that optimism and the questions are in 2019.

In the modern college football game, making any major bowl game isn’t as important as making the correct major bowl game. That is to say, it seems as though a lot less emphasis is being placed on bowl games, outside of the College Football Playoff. Those games still come with the trophy and pageantry. Their prestige, however, has run dry. That’s until they’re one of the two College Football Playoff games again.

Notre Dame  football, being independent, doesn’t have a conference to set their sites on winning. And, given the lack of prestige in non-playoff New Year’s Six bowls, it leaves the playoff bowls as the biggest goal of the season.

To get there,  Notre Dame will need to impress pollsters. They’ll need to go undefeated and win impressively. Here’s how Notre Dame will be able to do that:

Why the Irish Will Make the Playoff: Ian Book

Notre Dame has had a string of good, not great, and not good enough to win the biggest game quarterbacks. Brandon Wimbush, Deshone Kizer, Jimmy Clausen, Tommy Rees, and even Heisman Trophy finalist, Brady Quinn fall into this category.

Ian Book seems different. He came to Notre Dame without the usual expectations set for a quarterback. He took his time, learned, and developed his skill set. When Wimbush struggled out of the gate last season, Book took over, and led the Irish to an undefeated regular season.

Book is accurate, fairly mobile, a good decision maker, and can throw on the run. He’s everything you need to be to fit into a Chip Long offense.

In 2018, Book completed 68% of his passes, and threw 19 touchdowns. After a year of game action, he should only get more comfortable, and be even better.

Brian Kelly even says that Book took a giant leap forward in spring practice. He credits Clemson’s defense for the leap, and Book’s ability to learn from the game. Kelly said, “The biggest growth was probably this spring after the Clemson game, getting a pass rush from arguably one of the best defensive lines in a long time in college football.”

Expect Book to be excellent, and to make Notre Dame competitive in every single game this season. He has the job of keeping the offense ticking, and there’s no reason to think he won’t do an exceptional job of it.

Why the Irish Won’t Make the Playoff: Departing Seniors

Losing seniors to graduation is something that every team needs to deal with. This is also true for those teams at the top of the mountain. Just look at how much of Clemson’s vaunted defensive line has graduated.

Notre Dame is losing their top players at defensive line, linebacker, corner, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. That’s a lot of spots where someone, who wasn’t starting last season, needs to step up, an fill the role. It’s likely, not every spot will be figured out. This will lead to holes, and weaknesses that other teams will be able to exploit.

On the offensive side of the ball, finding a downfield threat, without Miles Boykin, is going to be a struggle. Alize Mack also needs replacing at tight end. In other words, hopefully Book has open options to throw to, because some old reliable players are gone.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Irish lose All-American corner, Julian Love. Clemson dominated the second quarter, which he missed due to injury. However, when Love was in the game, Clemson was not able to throw all over the place. Really, the Cotton Bowl came down to the quarter Love missed.

Drue Tranquill is also gone. Tranquill, a linebacker, was the heart of the defense. He was a sure tackler, and moved well. Still, his leadership is most important to be replaced.

In a way, replacing both of these players, doesn’t fall on the shoulders of their direct replacements at corner, and linebacker. It falls on the shoulders of safety, Alohi Gilman. He will need to cover up the new corner’s mistakes, and replace Tranquill’s leadership.

Notre Dame has the talent to replace everyone, but experience, and development matter. If any of these spots prove to be weak points, they’ll be exploited. Maybe they only cost the Irish a game, but losing one game will cost them the playoff.

Why the Irish Will Make the Playoff: The Schedule

Notre Dame is often unfairly knocked for their schedule. There’s many college football fans who complain about Notre Dame’s schedule, and not being in a conference that it becomes white noise. But, here’s the thing, Notre Dame’s schedule is easier in the right ways, and tougher in the right ways. It’s a perfect schedule for a college football fan.

Yes, Notre Dame doesn’t need to play a thirteenth game, making life easier for them than a team in a conference looking for a playoff bid. However, this does mean they can’t afford a loss.

What Notre Dame does have on their schedule this season, is road trips to Georgia, and Michigan. Winning those games, along with games against teams like Stanford and Virginia Tech, will give the Irish as many marquee wins as a team in a conference. In recent years, Alabama has been using Georgia as a win worthy of getting into the College Football Playoff. Why can’t the Irish?

Notre Dame also doesn’t take a FCS bye week.

In between these games as tough, or tougher than any conference team is an easy schedule. The Irish really shouldn’t be surprised by anyone, and should take care of business.

Why the Irish Won’t Make the Playoff: Last Season’s Cotton Bowl

Last season, Notre Dame had a ton of doubters. A lot of this doubt was based on their S.O.S. and people wondered if they deserved to be on the field with Clemson. 31-3 later, and the joke was that UCF would at least have broke double digits.

The game confirmed everyone’s suspicions about the Irish. That they were frauds. That they’re from an older time, and no longer belong.

That’s not true, but what is true is that in college football, reputation and perception are more important than reality.

The reality is any undefeated team, including UCF or other group of 5 schools, should have a shot in a Playoff. The reality is they don’t, making the College Football Playoff, an invitational tournament. One that it is worth noting, is not sanctioned by the NCAA. It’s also not how the NCAA determines a National Champion. They still use polls.

However, for fans, perception is more important than the reality of the situation. And, whether Notre Dame likes it, or not, they’re perceived as less than other Power 5 programs. Losing the Cotton Bowl in the manner that they did, only confirmed that for people. Potentially, it could keep the Irish out of the Playoff, despite being undefeated, this season. Because perception trumps reality.

Notre Dame will most likely make a New Year’s Six bowl game. No one is disputing that. There is debate to whether they can make the College Football Playoff, or even deserve to make it.

Those questions will be answered on the field.