Notre Dame Football: Projecting a Record-Setting 2019 for Ian Book

Some personnel changes on the Notre Dame football team could dictate how Ian Book finishes the 2019 season from a statistical standpoint and allow him to get his name in the record books.

Ian Book put together one of the most efficient seasons as a passer in all of college football for the Notre Dame football team in 2018. In just eight regular season games and one bowl game, Book threw for 2,628 yards, 19 touchdowns to seven interceptions, and completed 68.2 percent of his passes.

From a completion percentage standpoint, that number shouldn’t change much for Book in 2019. He has established himself as a consistently accurate mid-range passer, and that won’t change a whole lot based on personnel or volume.

What will change are his bottom-line numbers. For starters, he’ll have four more regular season starts in 2019 than he had in 2018 as long as he stays healthy. And unless the wheels fall completely off the Irish this season, we can count on another bowl appearance.

Personnel changes are subsequently going to impact Notre Dame’s offensive attack. Book will be working with a more diverse set of receivers and tight ends for starters.  You won’t have two big-bodied possession types, but rather one of those guys in Chase Claypool and a traditional “lid-lifter” like Michael Young. You’ll also likely see more targets go to Cole Kmet than what went to Alize Mack a season ago.

You then need to factor in the departure of Dexter Williams — a guy who could pound the rock between the tackles and explode for huge gains. He’ll be replaced primarily by Jafar Armstrong, who is a natural receiver. Tony Jones Jr. will be in the mix as well, but Armstrong will likely get more snaps, which means more play designs that include the running back as a receiver.

Last season, the Irish ran the ball 536 times and threw it 418 times. Of those 418 pass attempts, 102 came from Brandon Wimbush during his four games as a starter. On average, Book attempted about nine more passes per game than Wimbush during games they started. That works out to an additional 36 attempts had Book started the four games that Wimbush did.

Taking those numbers, we’re now looking at would could have been 454 pass attempts in 2018. That would have worked out to about a 52/48 percent run-to-pass ratio. With the aforementioned personnel changes leading to an uptick in pass attempts, a modest adjustment to a projection of a 50/50 run-pass ratio isn’t out of the question.

If the Irish run the same number of plays in 2019 as they did in 2018 — but at a 50/50 ratio — that works out to Ian Book attempting 477 passes. If you project him to throw more deep balls and lower his completion percentage to a still very respectable 65 percent, he would complete about 310 passes. Give him roughly another yard per completion when factoring the long balls, and Book should average about 13 yards per completion.

In terms of touchdowns and interceptions, Book tossed one touchdown about every 11 completions and one interception per every 44 attempts.

When you put all of those numbers into my handy-dandy math machine, you spit out a projected stat line for Ian Book of 4,030 yards, 28 touchdown passes and not quite 11 interceptions.

That yardage total would break Brady Quinn’s Notre Dame single-season record of 3,919 yards, set in 2005 (bowl stats included).

Yes, wins and losses are the most important stat at the end of the day for everyone with a vested interest in the Notre Dame football program, but the prospect of a record-setting season from an Irish signal-caller is quite the bonus to look forward to.