Notre Dame Football: Ian Book’s Regression in Numbers

The numbers don’t lie for Notre Dame quarterback Ian Book, but is it all his fault?

You don’t need me to tell you that Notre Dame quarterback Ian Book has had a disappointing season in 2019. We’ve all seen the issues. Book is feeling the pressure way too much. Sometimes, he’s even feeling phantom pressures. It’s causing him to panic. He either goes to his first read without looking for a second, or scrambles when he shouldn’t.

Those didn’t seem to be issues last season. In 2018, when under pressure it felt like Book kept his eyes downfield and found his second and third options. It felt like he scrambled in more reasonable situations. It felt like he had command and control of the offense.

Some have suggested that this regression is due to Brian Kelly and Chip Long expecting tons more from their starter in terms of the reads and complexity of the offense. They’ll say that Book is simply not being able to handle that change. I say a guy who once had 16/1 Heisman odds should be able to handle a complex offense.

The offensive line has also regressed. Additionally, losing Dexter Williams and Miles Boykin has made it easier for opposing defenses to focus on Book’s other weapons. In other words, the team isn’t as talented around Book, and he hasn’t been able to negate that step-back.

This regression has felt devastating and massive. Against Virginia Tech, it was nice to see Book take a few more chances, but those chances came at the cost of turnovers. He still didn’t dominate the way that people expected him to coming into the season.

So, let’s look at some numbers to see how much Book has regressed, or if it is that expectations were simply too high for the signal caller:

• So far Book has played 8 games in 2019. He played 10 games in 2018.

This is just worth remembering that there is still time for these numbers to adjust. The season isn’t over, and Book has never been the starter for an entire season before.

• Book threw 19 touchdowns to 7 interceptions in 2018. He’s thrown 17 touchdowns to 4 interceptions in 2019.

Ian Book has a much better touchdown to interception ratio than he did last season. In 2018 he was nearly throwing an interception for every two touchdowns he threw. That’s very mediocre. However, a ratio closer to 4-1 is good. It’s not elite, but it is improvement.

This shows that Book has been determined to take care of the football. Perhaps too determined, with Book not taking enough chances to create scores.

• Book’s completion percentage is down to 58.2 percent, from 68.2 percent in 2018.

This is the biggest spot of regression for Ian Book. He went from being very efficient to below average. A completion percentage around of 70 percent is excellent, but under 60 percent is simply not good enough.

The question has to be why has Book regressed so much here?

It’s a mix of factors. Most notably, though, with Miles Boykin gone, he has one less target that defenses need to worry about. This has made covering Cole Kmet and Chase Claypool easier. Defenses have more resources they can afford to use to cover them. Therefore, Book’s reliable safety valves are almost always in double coverage.

• His passing yards per attempt are also down from last season, 8.4 to his 2019 mark of 7.4.

This has to do with play-calling and Book’s confidence letting a play develop.

The Notre Dame offense has been playing too carefully all season. They’re scared to make mistakes. So, the first guy 3 yards downfield is getting the ball thrown their way. This is why every Notre Dame drive needs to be long and laborious. It’s also helped keep interceptions down.

Why is this happening? Book doesn’t trust how much time he has in the pocket, and is panicking.

• In 2018 Ian Book threw for 262.8 yards per game. His 2019 number is 229.1 yards per game.

This is directly tied into not taking downfield shots, and having less talent on the team around him. He doesn’t seem as confident. He seems anxious. Thus, he is statistically worse in 2019 than 2018.

• He’s taken 11 sacks in 2019 compared to 18 sacks in 2018. Six of 2018’s sacks came against Clemson.

Ian Book is taking less sacks per game this season than last season. I think that is directly tied to the Clemson game where he was harassed and tormented.

It’s seemed since Week 1 that Ian Book is still seeing ghosts of the Clemson front 7. He is uncomfortable in the pocket. He’s scrambling before he needs to. He is struggling to get off of his first read.

That’s been where Book seems to have gone backwards the most, with his poise. He doesn’t play confident like he did in 2018. He plays nervous and scared to make mistakes.

• He’s running less than in 2018. Book has 8.5 carries a game in 2019 vs 9.5 in 2018.

This is an oddity. Even though it has felt like Book is scrambling more in 2019, he’s actually running less. Not just that, but Book is running more effectively in 2019, over a yard more per carry this season from last season.

What Book is doing is running closer to the same amount of times per game in 2019. In 2018 he ran as little as one time in a game, and as many as 17 times in another. So, it probably just feels like he’s running more because he doesn’t have as many games with less than 5 carries.

All in all, Ian Book is still a solid QB. At his best, he wasn’t great last season. Our expectations were just so much hiigher than what he’s produced this season. Add that to a definitive regression, and fans feel restless.

I don’t think Book is struggling to understand the offense, as it has been suggested. I do think play calling has been bland at best. I do believe that the talent around him is worse this season. That isn’t to say it’s a bad team around him. Notre Dame has tons of talent, just not as much on offense as they did in 2018.

Blend all of that with a tougher schedule in 2019 than 2018 and it’s just reality that Book hasn’t met the high expectations of fans. That stinks. However, there’s nothing we can do about it for now. He’s the signal caller this season. Hopefully, he figures it out.