Notre Dame’s Convoluted Path to the NY6, and the Argument for the Irish

Notre Dame still has an outside shot at a New Year’s Six bowl, but the path is complicated.

In most seasons, 10-2 is good enough to get Notre Dame into the New Year’s Six. They’d be going to the Fiesta Bowl or Cotton Bowl without too much debate. Sure, there’d be some naysayers that they don’t deserve to because they’re an Independent, but those people should be white noise.

This season has been unique, though. Despite Notre Dame’s 10-2 record, they’re staring a mid-level bowl game in the face.

There’s a few reasons for this. The first is that the Irish have simply not impressed the College Football Playoff Selection committee. Notre Dame has been sitting at 16th in their rankings, behind three loss teams like Auburn, and a two-loss Florida who played two FCS opponents. The Irish haven’t fared much better in the AP Poll, where they’ve been 15th.

Those low rankings indicate that many observing the program don’t feel they deserve a major bowl bid. Why they feel that way is debatable, but the reality is they do, and that hurts Notre Dame’s chances.

Notre Dame is also hurt by the conference tie-ins for each of the New Year’s Six bowls.

Most seasons, Notre Dame can get a bowl bid from the Peach, Cotton, Fiesta, or Orange Bowls. That’s because the Peach, Cotton, and Fiesta bowls offer at-large bids. The Orange Bowl offers an ACC bid to take on either Notre Dame, a BIG Ten team, or a SEC team. The Rose Bowl is played by the BIG 10, and PAC 12 champions. The Sugar Bowl hosts champions from the SEC and Big 12.

This year the Peach and Fiesta Bowl will be acting as the College Football Playoff Semi-finals. Four at-large spots in the New Year’s Six are gone because of that. The second best team from those conferences which make the Playoff will take their bid towards a specific bowl game. For instance, if LSU wins the SEC, they’ll be in the College Football Playoff. Who gets their spot in the Sugar Bowl. The second best SEC team — probably Georgia.

The Group of 5 champion is guaranteed a spot in the New Year’s Six. Memphis is in position to win that spot, and it is presumed they’ll get one of the two at-large bids to the Cotton Bowl.

This leaves two spots available for Notre Dame in the New Year’s Six — one Cotton Bowl spot and one Orange Bowl spot. There’s also a ton of teams that feel they deserve that spot.

A two-loss Alabama and a two loss Florida both will be ranked ahead of Notre Dame. They both have every right towards both the same two spots as Notre Dame. Auburn, with three losses, is ranked ahead of Notre Dame, which won’t change after beating Alabama.

Unless Oklahoma makes the CFP, the loser of the Big 12 Championship Game will also vie for an at-large spot. Then there’s the PAC 12 Championship. If Oregon wins, they go to the Rose Bowl, and Utah demands an at-large bid. Utah makes the Playoff, and both Oklahoma and Baylor want a NY6 spot.

Then there’s the Big Ten, who will likely send Ohio State to the Playoff and Wisconsin to the Rose Bowl. They boast 10-2 Minnesota and 10-2 Penn State. Both of them will want an at-large spot.

In other words, there’s not much room for Notre Dame to make a New Year’s Six Bowl. Don’t get your hopes up, but here’s how Notre Dame can make the Playoff:

• First things first, no 3 loss team should be making a New Year’s Six Game this season. That way Auburn and Michigan have no argument.
• Utah needs to make the CFP, (hopefully Oklahoma wins the Big 12)
  • Sends Oregon to the Rose Bowl
  • Sends Oklahoma to the Sugar Bowl
  • Opens argument that Baylor’s resume is too weak for the NY6 (If Oklahoma goes to the CFP, Baylor would automatically go to the Sugar Bowl, taking up another spot).
• Minnesota’s resume fails them
• Florida doesn’t pass the eye test, and is punished for playing two FCS games

By now you’ve argued it down to three teams for those two spots; Notre Dame, Penn State, and Alabama. Before now, your argument has been a little homer-ish, but not unreasonable. This is the convoluted part of your argument:

• Find a way to tear down Alabama. This isn’t easy, and probably won’t work. You need to try.
  • Without Tua Tagovailoa they’re not the same team. Look at those terrible interceptions from Mac Jones.
  • Their defense is abysmal, and they should be punished for it’s incompetence.
  • Add an embarrassing kicking game and all Alabama has anymore is some good receivers. Granted, they’re elite, but that’s one unit.

Unsurprisingly, the argument against the Tide didn’t work. Time to go after Penn State:

• They’ve played too many close games.
  • 21 points is by far the closest BIG 10 game Rutgers played this season.
  • Nearly lost to Pitt, Indiana, Michigan State, and Iowa.
• Penn State’s offense is inconsistent. Clifford is a mess during big games.

Maybe someone bought your take down on Penn State. Truth be told, they were never sold on the Nittany Lions anyways. You just confirmed what they thought they already knew.

Now you have to sell them on Notre Dame. This might be the hardest part of everything. People have been cold on the Irish. A couple close wins and the blowout loss to Michigan haven’t helped. The offense has been inconsistent, and big-game Brian Kelly is a mess.

Here’s what you say:

• Virginia and Virginia Tech played to go onto the ACC Championship Game. Virginia won. They’ll lose to Clemson who will make the CFP. This means the Orange Bowl will scoop up Virginia as the second best ACC team (God help Notre Dame’s already long shot at the NY6 if Virginia wins).
  • You argue, it’s weird how the Orange Bowl is going to be taking a four loss Virginia team, who lost to Notre Dame. The Irish have only lost twice, both on the road to ranked teams. In a just world Notre Dame deserves a bid.
• Notre Dame’s offense is actually really good. Cole Kmet and Chase Claypool will be NFL studs. Ian Book has figured it out since the Virginia Tech game. Sure, it’s been ugly at times, but we’re still 15th in scoring offense. That’s well ahead of Penn State!
• The Irish are elite on defense and consistent on special teams. Hey, Alabama, it’s called being a complete team.
• Notre Dame has played nine Power 5 teams and no FCS teams. One of the G5 teams they played was ranked for much of the season. That’s actually a really good schedule.

If a couple of things break Notre Dame’s way, and those arguments around Notre Dame work, there is still a long shot at the Irish making a New Year’s Six Bowl.

Yeah, don’t hold your breath of this happening.

Notre Dame is probably headed for the Camping World Bowl against a boring opponent like Iowa State or Texas. Still, it’s nice to have a crazy argument in your back pocket.