Notre Dame football: How realistic is the College Football Playoff

Notre Dame football: How realistic is the College Football Playoff

How the Irish can get in without an ACC title

A controlled burn would look like Alabama winning out, including beating Florida in the SEC Championship Game. This would eliminate Florida, the current number six team. It would also lock Alabama into the top seed.

Then, you’d like to see Cincinnati and Texas A&M drop a game each.

Yes, Notre Dame would probably still have a stronger resume than a Texas A&M team who got blown out by Alabama and didn’t even win their division. Cincinnati, meanwhile, would also have to get the College Football Playoff Committee to change its worldview, which we all know they’re not ready to do just yet. Even though Notre Dame still has a better resume than these two with an ACC Championship Game loss, a loss by these two would guarantee Notre Dame ends up ahead of these two.

Looking at the B1G 10, it’s best to keep the favorite in control, just like it is with the SEC. That means Ohio State would win out and beat Northwestern in the B1G 10 Championship Game. What you don’t want, is an unbeaten Northwestern beating Ohio State.

This would force Northwestern into the Playoff, and leave the committee to choose between Notre Dame and Ohio State.

The only other teams with a shot are Oregon and USC. As of right now, the committee has made it clear they haven’t played enough games, but as the season goes on, they could move up based on what happens ahead of them. For Notre Dame, the best-case scenario is they lose, but if that doesn’t happen they just don’t play enough games for the committee to let them in.

Now, if Notre Dame loses to Clemson, but can’t rely on a controlled burn, they need chaos. What does chaos look like? We don’t entirely know until it happens. That’s the great thing about chaos. It’s unpredictable and therefore fun.

What if Florida drops a game to end the season, but win the SEC Championship Game? Would the committee put a two-loss SEC Champion in, or would they put a team that just lost to the SEC Champion in over them? If Northwestern drops a regular season game, but still beats Ohio State, would the B1G 10 still make the Playoff? What if Pitt does the unthinkable and beats Clemson while Dabo Swinney is distracted by doctors trying to prevent the spread of a pandemic?

All of this amounts to a simple reality. We don’t yet know that Notre Dame will make the Playoff, and it’s premature to assume they will. However, they’ve got as good a shot as anybody ever has.