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Rose Bowl post-mortem: Is Notre Dame football closer to Alabama or Pitt?

By Daniel Morrison

ARLINGTON, TEXAS - JANUARY 01: Running back Najee Harris #22 of the Alabama Crimson Tide leaps cornerback Nick McCloud #4 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during the first quarter of the 2021 College Football Playoff Semifinal Game at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Capital One at AT&T Stadium on January 01, 2021 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)
ARLINGTON, TEXAS - JANUARY 01: Running back Najee Harris #22 of the Alabama Crimson Tide leaps cornerback Nick McCloud #4 of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during the first quarter of the 2021 College Football Playoff Semifinal Game at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Capital One at AT&T Stadium on January 01, 2021 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images) /
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Notre Dame football
Brian Kelly has his program closer to elite than not. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports /

Is Notre Dame football closer to Pitt or to Alabama?

ESPN’s FPI ranks Alabama first in offensive efficiency, 11th in defensive efficiency, and first in overall efficiency.  Their overall FPI is at 34.7, which is the best in the country. Notre Dame, at 19.7 is 6th overall, with all of their efficiencies trailing Alabama’s.

They’re tenth on offense, 17th on defense, and 12th overall respectively, while Pitt, who was ranked at one point this season, was 41st in overall FPI at 5.5. Their offense was an abysmal, sitting at 81st  in efficiency, but a solid 26th in defensive efficiency, and that led to an overall efficiency ranking of 50th.

So, Pitt clearly trails Alabama and Notre Dame in the FPI metric by a good bit, however, what is interesting is that the Irish trailed the Crimson Tide by 15 points in their overall FPI metric. Pitt is only 14.2 points behind Notre Dame, and this means, despite the large number of programs that separate Pitt and Notre Dame, the FPI analytic puts them at closer to Notre Dame than Notre Dame is to Alabama, where only four teams divide the two.

Notre Dame is also a common opponent for Pitt and Alabama, and we know that the Crimson Tide beat the Irish by 17, and the Irish beat the Panthers by 42. That implies that, analytics aside, Notre Dame is worlds closer to Alabama than they are to Pitt in a practical sense.

Except, that ignores that analytics are about predictions over time, they’re not about predicting individual games, but long term results and trends. In regards to this, at kickoff against Pitt, Notre Dame had a win probability of 79.6%. In the Rose Bowl, Alabama started with an 81% chance of beating Notre Dame. This means that Alabama had a better chance of beating the Irish than Notre Dame did of beating Pitt.

There’s fewer teams between Notre Dame and Alabama than there is between Notre Dame and Pitt, but the gap is also wider for practical purposes. Now, that can be incredibly frustrating, but it’s just reality. This trend isn’t limited to FPI, either. FPI is just the most well known of these types of rankings.

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