The Notre Dame football team still has a chance to make the College Football Playoff, and here is how they can get into the final four.
It has long since been accepted that Notre Dame football has made a deal with the devil. Yes, the Irish can stay Independent, but to do so they can only make the College Football Playoff under one circumstance-they go unbeaten.
So, as Notre Dame lost to Cincinnati, it would seem like they’re out of luck this year.
There is a big ‘but’ to all of that, though. 2021 is a strange season. It’s so strange that the Group of Five team Notre Dame lost to is ranked 5th. Alabama, Ohio State, and Oklahoma have all lost too. Clemson isn’t even ranked they’re so bad. The PAC-12 is itself, as usual.
Notre Dame football No. 8 in College Football Playoff ranking
In the latest CFP rankings, Notre Dame is ranked 8th. With two weeks worth of regular season and the conference championship games left to play, the Irish are within striking distance. Of course, Notre Dame is going to need help to make the College Football Playoff.
However, the fact there is even a path into the Playoff for the Irish is a testament to how strange this season has been.
Notre Dame football: How the Irish can make the College Football Playoff
How can it happen?
First things first, Cincinnati has to lose. Because the Bearcats beat the Irish, Notre Dame can’t realistically be ranked ahead of Cincinnati, especially with how Cincinnati controlled that game. The Bearcats have struggled the past month or so, especially on offense, and with a difficult stretch coming up against SMU, ECU, and presumably Houston in the AAC Championship Game, there are plenty of chances for that to happen.
The next thing is that it’s important for Ohio State and Georgia to win out. This would give Michigan State and Michigan a second loss each, eliminating both of them from contention. It would also assure that Ohio State makes the College Football Playoff. Georgia winning out would confirm their spot.
If they play Alabama in the SEC Championship Game and lose, both Alabama and Georgia will make the Playoff. That’s two spots being taken up. However, if Georgia wins out, or Alabama simply loses again, then only Georgia will make the Playoff. No two loss team will make the current format. Not much is certain, but that is true.
Notre Dame football: How the Irish can make the College Football Playoff
So will it happen?
At this point, the Playoff would look something like: 1) Georgia, 2) Ohio State, 3) Oregon 4) ?. Notre Dame would fit into that four seed based on the current rankings. However, there is always the chance someone from the Big 12 or ACC could jump past them. For instance, if Oklahoma State won out, would ranked wins over Oklahoma and Baylor be enough of a bump to their strength of schedule to jump past the Irish? Would winning the ACC be enough for Wake Forest? Either case is possible, and even likely.
Because of that, Notre Dame could use more help than they currently have gotten. Oregon losing and eliminating the PAC-12 would help. They’ve had a couple close calls, and the end of their season is tricky with Utah and Oregon State, plus the PAC-12 Championship Game. Even if Oregon doesn’t lose, they already lost to Stanford. If Notre Dame wins their season finale, it would be a great comparison for the committee.
Along with that, letting the Big 12 and ACC further canninbalize themselves would also help the Irish. Of course, Notre Dame also needs to win out for any of this to matter, but with Georgia Tech and Stanford remaining, this shouldn’t be an issue. If it is an issue, then Notre Dame doesn’t deserve to be in the Playoff.
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In all of this respect, along with how impressive Notre Dame’s schedule has been in hindsight, the Irish are actually in a great position to make the College Football Playoff. It’s likely that Georgia and Ohio State win out. It’s possible Cincinnati loses. Yes, there are a few breaks that need to go Notre Dame’s way, but it’s not out of the world of possibilities. The bigger question is whether or not Notre Dame wants to make the Playoff this season. After all, wouldn’t it be better to play the Big 12 Champion in the Fiesta Bowl than Georgia in a semi-final game?