The chorus of pundits opining whether Notre Dame football should join a conference will never cease, and the noise is starting to get a lot louder.
With the sudden shift of USC and UCLA to the Big Ten, experts wondered if the Notre Dame football team would make a similar move. Slap the Sign site expert Brad Weiss believes the Irish are the final piece of the puzzle for the Big Ten. The Fighting Irish represents one of the biggest brands in college athletics. A brand that remains untethered to a conference.
Regardless of which conference beckons, Notre Dame is unlikely to drop independence any time soon. But, who predicted that the Trojans and Bruins would play under the same banner as the Buckeyes and Wolverines? The college football landscape changes daily, if not hourly. What would it take for the Fighting Irish to end over 100 years of independence?
Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick previously stated the decision to join a conference shifts on three factors: 1.) access to the College Football Playoff, 2.) a home for the school’s Olympic sports, and 3.) a television partner.
The most recent, albeit shocking, news that USC and UCLA plan to join the Big Ten does not alter Notre Dame’s independent status. The fact that USC and Notre Dame will continue their rivalry only strengthens the Irish position. However, these factors could change as more teams bolt for new destinations. Proposed new massive television contracts could also shift the balance of power. Most likely, a television partner will always want to broadcast the Golden Domers. What needs to happen with these factors before Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick feels compelled to join a conference?
Notre Dame football: What will it take for the Irish to join a conference?
A shift in the CFP structure
Discussions over the past year pointed to College Football Playoff expansion. However, in Feb. 2022, CFP executive director Bill Hancock announced that the playoff would stay with four teams through the end of the contract.
The twelve-year contract expires after the 2025 season. At that point, the College Football Playoff could remain with four teams or expand to six, eight, or twelve teams.
College Football Playoff expansion favors Notre Dame football staying Independent. The original twelve-team proposal featured six conference champions and six at-large teams. The top four conference champions would receive a bye. If the twelve-team playoff was in place during Brian Kelly’s tenure, the Fighting Irish would have made the College Football Playoff five times (2012, 2015, 2018, 2020, 2021).
An expanded playoff further secures Irish independence.
The lack of a bye represents a major drawback in this model. The road to a national championship grows much further away with an expanded playoff and lack of bye. Hypothetically, in 2018, two games sat between the Notre Dame football team and a College Football Playoff championship.
If the expanded playoff existed during that season, the Fighting Irish would have entered as the fifth seed instead of the third. With a fifth seed, the Irish would sit four games away from being crowned the National Champion.
If conference expansion causes a different College Football Playoff model then this factor could sway in a different direction. It would need to include a conference champion exclusivity provision to affect the Notre Dame football program.
Notre Dame football: What will it take for the Irish to join a conference?
Home for ND’s Olympic sports could be the Achilles heel for independence
Conference commissioners could force Jack Swarbrick and the Notre Dame administration to drop independence by demanding full membership. Currently, the Notre Dame football program and the rest of the athletic department possess a hybrid relationship with Atlantic Coast Conference.
The Notre Dame football team meets its obligation to the ACC by playing member schools. In exchange, the ACC grants access to the Irish non-football programs.
When the two parties inked this deal in 2012, the college football landscape appeared much different. The “Bowl Championship Series” still graced the presence of the unique sport. An ACC, desperate to solidify its permanence in major college football, may attempt to push Notre Dame football to become a full member of the conference.
Several questions immediately arise. Does the ACC possess the leverage to make such a bold move? Would the ACC risk losing Notre Dame as a partial member if the Irish choose another conference instead?
The brand of the Notre Dame football team helps the ACC generate revenue. If the ACC forces the issue, the Irish might elect a different conference. In other words, if forced to join a conference, the ACC might not be Notre Dame’s first preference.
In holding the Irish Olympic sports hostage, the Notre Dame administration might bolt for an opportunity more historically aligned with the program like the Big 10.
Another scenario exists in which the ACC is pilfered by other conferences looking to strengthen their position. If Miami (FL), Clemson, North Carolina, and Florida State depart for other conferences, the prestige of the group diminishes significantly. At that point, would the ACC continue as a lower-tier conference or cease to exist? If they continue as a lower-tier conference, would Notre Dame continue with its agreement?
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There are hundreds of scenarios and ‘what ifs.’ The Notre Dame football team will likely win (and lose) before a definitive decision is made. Another significant shift must happen before the future becomes clear.