CJ Carr’s impact on Notre Dame’s offense is obvious, even when he’s not at his best

It feels like a long time ago that CJ Carr was entrenched in a fall camp QB battle with Kenny Minchey, and it appeared that the redshirt freshman was losing grip on the starting job. Now, eight weeks into the season, Notre Dame is well-positioned to win out and claim a spot in the College Football Playoff, largely due to Carr’s excellent play. 

While he wasn’t his best self in a rainy South Bend against USC on Saturday, Carr’s impact on the Notre Dame offense is undeniable. Carr managed just 6.57 yards per dropback, and going 16-for-26 for 136 yards with a touchdown and an interception, his -0.38 EPA/dropback was the worst of his career. Yet, Notre Dame ran for the ball for 306 yards and three scores, including one touchdown run from Carr, and the credible threat of an explosive passing game is a huge reason why. 

As the clip from Greg Flammang demonstrates, USC was hesitant to stack the box on first-and-10. Defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn wanted to limit Carr’s impact on the game as a thrower by keeping two deep safeties and, in many cases, using his best defensive player, Eric Gentry, in coverage. 

Gentry played 22 coverage snaps and was aligned in the slot on 14 of his 71 total snaps, a far from ideal usage of the player who leads USC’s defense with 17 run-game stops, as charted by PFF. That game plan from Lynn allowed Notre Dame to feast on early downs, generating 0.31 EPA/play on early downs with a 51 percent rushing success rate. 

CJ Carr brings Notre Dame an element that Riley Leonard never could

Riley Leonard led Notre Dame to the national championship game, so it’s hard to take issue with his play style a year ago. However, Leonard was limited as a passer. The threat of his mobility allowed Notre Dame to play 11-on-11 in the run game, which created run lanes for Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, but defenses could still stack the box in preparation without much concern of getting torched for it over the top. 

Notre Dame’s explosive pass rate in 2024 was just 6.8 percent, ranking in the 7th percentile. This year, it is up to 8.7 percent (66th percentile), and that’s helped the offense improve to 31st in EPA/pass, up from 53rd. 

The run game isn’t quite as efficient, largely because of what Leonard provided on the ground, but Love and Price are about as effective as they were. 

Notre Dame was too one-dimensional to beat Ohio State in the title game last year. With Carr, that won’t be the case in the CFP this time around.