With the second half of the season for Notre Dame kicking off this week, several analysts are trying to figure out how the rest of 2026 will go.
One bold prediction comes from CBS Sports’ Brad Crawford: Fighting Irish fans could be very happy. But he makes the same mistake many analysts have—he assumes the College Football Playoff committee will fight fair.
Among Crawford’s “10 bold predictions” is the biggie for Notre Dame. He believes that even if the Irish lose to Miami on November 7, they’ll still make the CFP, as long as they beat SMU. The logic behind it is sound, since the Mustangs could be Top 15 by the time they play Notre Dame a few weeks after the ‘Canes.
“Everyone's pointing to the Fighting Irish's upcoming game against unbeaten Miami on November 7 as a must-win following their loss to BYU …” Crawford wrote in the column.
Notre Dame football could reach CFP with two losses, but committee history creates doubt
“Notre Dame hosts SMU in late November, and there's a solid chance the Mustangs come into that one 9-1 on a seven-game winning streak if they get past Wake Forest on November 14. From there, all Notre Dame has to do is finish inside the selection committee's top 12, given this season's CFP assurance. As long as the Fighting Irish get to 10 wins, they're getting in this time around.”
The Fighting Irish are indeed in a decent position to stick around the Top 12, as the latest AP Top 25 only dropped them to No. 5 as they sat around and waited out the bye. But Crawford keeps missing the point that everyone else who is complaining about Notre Dame's “sweetheart” deal does.
He’s not wrong that if the Irish are No. 12 in the final College Football Playoff Poll, they’ll automatically get in, while a team from another conference could get jumped if it’s not a conference champion. But Crawford and everyone else forget that to keep Notre Dame out, the committee simply has to rank the Golden Domers 13th or worse.
That kind of move isn't unheard of; it’s exactly what the committee did last year. Notre Dame was ranked inside the bracket for several weeks in a row, then dropped out despite winning big for their 10th victory of the season.
The excuses for that drop were pathetic and weird, but there’s no way to file an appeal. Then an SEC-heavy committee put an Alabama team that didn’t finish the season ahead of the Irish, and it didn't look good at all. That Crimson Tide team repaid the gift by getting crushed in the first round.
Crawford’s prediction brings both good news and bad. The good news is that it lays the groundwork for a two-loss Notre Dame team to make the College Football Playoff. Still, those who buy the argument should expect plenty of reason to think he’ll be proven wrong, even if the season plays out as he said.
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