Notre Dame, with no margin for error, may have reached the CFP ranking ceiling

The Fighting Irish didn't budge in the rankings this week, and they may not for the rest of the season.
Nov 15, 2025; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA;  Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback CJ Carr (13) calls an audible at the line of scrimmage against the Pittsburgh Panthers during the fourth quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
Nov 15, 2025; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback CJ Carr (13) calls an audible at the line of scrimmage against the Pittsburgh Panthers during the fourth quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images | Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

If there is one team that has had to fight all season long to make sure its spot in the College Football Playoff was still possible, it has been Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish, unfortunately, did it to themselves by losing their first two games of the season, and no team with three losses made the CFP last season.

While at some point a team with three losses could make it in, it doesn't seem like it with be this season. Any team that has suffered that third loss has pretty much been dropped out of the field and struggled to get back in.

For Notre Dame, their margin of error has been so small, but with two unranked teams left on their schedule, their ceiling might have been met, but do they deserve that?

With two losses, Notre Dame may not see anymore movement this season

Right now, Notre Dame has been ranked No. 9 in the CFP rankings for two weeks in a row. The Fighting Irish came in at No. 10 in the first week and have since still only moved one spot, which means the committee may feel like other teams still have more quality wins and maybe even fewer losses to be ranked higher.

Oklahoma was a team that last week was below the Fighting Irish, but this week, they jumped over Notre Dame after a big win over No. 4 Alabama. Notre Dame also beat a ranked opponent, No. 22 Pitt, and didn't move at all, so the committee may feel that No. 9 is the highest they can really go.

It seems that the only way Notre Dame is moving up the rankings is if there is a lot of chaos in front of them to make other teams drop. There are two weeks left of the season, though, so it is possible, but again, the Fighting Irish have a margin of error that is so slim that a loss would dash away any hope of a CFP appearance.

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