Notre Dame and Ohio State suffered two of the worst losses of this college football season, the Fighting Irish losing to Northern Illinois in South Bend and the Buckeyes dropping their regular season finale to Michigan in Columbus. However, the 12-team College Football Playoff is built to give you a second chance, and both teams have capitalized on it. No. 7 Notre Dame and No. 8 Ohio State meeting in the National Championship Game on Monday night in Atlanta after both making the tournament with at-large bids.
While their paths have been quite similar—winning at home in the first round, knocking off a conference champion in the quarterfinals, and thrilling victories in the CFP semis—the aesthetics have been very different. Notre Dame has survived and advanced on toughness, timely plays, and impressive coaching performances from Marcus Freeman, while Ohio State looks like a juggernaut. That’s why the Buckeyes are big favorites. Here’s a look at the betting odds for the CFP National Championship game.
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame odds, spread, and total
These odds are available in the FanDuel Sportsbook.
Moneyline
- Ohio State -400
- Notre Dame +310
Spread
- Ohio State -8.5 (-106)
- Notre Dame +8.5 (-114)
Total
- 45.5 (over -110/under -110)
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame prediction
Ryan Day has the best roster in college football, it just took his team a while to play like it. The defense is borderline impregnable, led by a veteran defensive line, and offensively, the Buckeyes are loaded with weapons around veteran quarterback Will Howard. Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly can lean on freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith and potential first-round NFL draft pick Emeka Egbuka in the passing game and turn to QuinShon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson to move the ball on the ground. The only weakness is along the offensive line, a weakness caused by season-ending injuries to left tackle Josh Simmons and center Seth McLaughlin in the regular season.
The two teams that have been able to slow down the Buckeyes, Michigan, and Texas, have elite defensive lines which allowed them to live with two deep safeties and stop the run without loading the box. Michigan stuffed (held to zero or fewer yards) Ohio State on 35% of their runs and Texas posted a 27% stuff rate. That forced the Buckeyes into third-and-long and Howard into turnovers, but Notre Dame and defensive coordinator Al Golden will struggle to replicate that gameplan.
For the season, the Irish produced a 13.8% run stuff rate, which was 16th percentile, and it’s gotten worse without Rylie Mills along the defensive line. In the Orange Bowl, Penn State, without the threat of Smith and Egbuka, was only stuffed on 12% of its runs and averaged 4.9 yards per rush with a 54% success rate on the ground.
Golden prefers live in man coverage with a single-high safety and bodies around the line of scrimmage. If he sticks to that philosophy, Ohio State can burn him over the top, and if he tries to play two-high safeties, Judkins and Henderson will run wild. Ohio State can simply put up a number on Notre Dame’s defense that Riley Leonard and the Irish won’t be able to match.
Notre Dame also has offensive line issues, though much more recent ones. Starting left tackle Anthonie Knapp was injured in the Orange Bowl and will miss the national title game, leaving preseason starter Charles Jagusah, who filled in at left guard in the Orange Bowl after missing the entire season with an injury, to make his first start. Under perfect circumstances, it’s nearly impossible to score on an Ohio State defense that is third in EPA/play, and first in success rate.
Buckeyes DC Jim Knowles loves to bring heat so with a reconfigured offensive line and Leonard’s struggles against pressure (3.8 yards per attempt), the Irish could be in trouble. I’m expecting a convincing Ohio State win.
Final score: Ohio State 35 Notre Dame 17