It's all or nothing for Notre Dame football playoffs projections

The Notre Dame football team got a boost in the AP Top 25 on Sunday afternoon. However, despite moving up four spots in the poll, the biggest jump its had in weeks, it looks like the margin for error when it comes to making the playoffs is still the same.

ESPN has rolled out a new tool that will allow fans to play around with their favorite team's playoff chances and see what they need to do to get in, based on the analytics model the Worldwide Leader in Sports uses.

The site first gives users the ability to see where their team's chances sit right now. This might also be right where Notre Dame football fans already take issue. According to ESPN, the Irish currently have just a 59 percent chance of making the playoffs. That seems low at 7-1 and ranked No. 8 in the country.

Notre Dame football has no margin for playoffs error

The site then allows users to choose what the outcome of three of their team's "biggest" three games of the season. For ND, that's Virginia, Army and USC. That leaves out entirely the Florida State game, though with the Seminoles at 1-7, it seems the 59 percent chance takes a Blue and Gold win over FSU into account.

I used the predictor three different ways. With wins over Virginia and Army, but. a loss to USC. Then a win over Virginia and USC with a loss to Army. And finally wins over Army and USC with a loss to Virginina.

With all three situations, the site spit back very, very low chances of making the playoffs. All three situations had Irish with just a 20 - 25 percent chance of making the big dance. However, should Notre Dame beat all three opponents, Marcus Freeman and company have a 99 percent chance of making the postseason.

While the margin for error to get into the playoffs is slim, it looks like once they get in, anything can happen. More than a few simulations even have Notre Dame football hosting a game and winning the natioanl championship.