Will, should, coin flip: How Notre Dame football's season could shake out
The Notre Dame football team officially kicks off its season on Saturday, and it’s time to start girding our loins for a game that is going to be one of the most watched season openers of Week 1. It’s going to be a difficult hill to climb for the Irish. And it could be a very rewarding win.
Kelly Ford of Kfordratings has put together all sorts of projections for the upcoming season. Among those are the win probability for every Fighting Irish game.’
Ford breaks games down into what are basically “will, should, might, won't, coin flip,” depending on the win probability. It should be pointed out that Notre Dame football does not have a “won’t” game on their schedule. In other words, there isn’t a game they absolutely cannot win, according to the ratings.
Notre Dame football ‘will’ win games
What the Irish do have, is several games in the “will” win category. These are games that have 81-to-100 percent win probability ratings.
Northern Illinois (98), Purdue (90), Miami of Ohio (96), Louisville (82), Stanford (95), Georgia Tech (82), Navy (98), Virginia (95) and Army (98) are all games with very high win probability percentages.
Yes, Georgia Tech, despite it’s upset of Florida State in Week 0 is still in the “will” win slot. If just barely.
That’s 9-of-12 regular season games Kford believes the Irish have no business losing.
Should win games
The next tier is “should” win, which are games with Notre Dame win probabilities of 61-to-80 percent. There are two games in this tier. Florida State (77 percent) and USC (65 percent)
That Trojans number is interesting, especially when you consider how badly the Irish beat USC with Caleb Williams at the helm last season. Not that past win-loss gets factored into this season’s ratings.
The coin flip game
Coin flip games are any game where the Blue and Gold has a win probability percentage of 41-to-60 percent. In essence, a game where either team will win.
Notre Dame football has just one game on the schedule that matches this criteria, and I’m sure you’ve already figured out that it’s this weekend in College Station. Just in case you weren’t already biting your nails.