Notre Dame football is set to take on Penn State in the Orange Bowl in just two days, as these two blue-blood programs meet for the first time in almost 20 years. Both historic schools are seeking their first national championship since the 1980’s and the winner will advance to their first ever College Football Playoff National Championship.
The Fighting Irish and Nittany Lions have both won their first two rounds by double digits and have been dominant for the most part all year long. However, Penn State does have some weaknesses that Notre Dame football strengths can take advantage of. Marcus Freemans has led this Irish team to a historic season this year and is leading his team by example.
Freeman's fiery message to his team is to "stay in the moment" and to never get comfortable. Irish and the Nittany Lions will face off at 6:30 p.m. local time in Miami this Thursday night on ESPN. ND and PSU both have won their 13 games pretty convincingly, but the stats below favor the Irish and should send this thrilling Irish team on to the National Championship on Jan. 20.
Here are 5 stats that prove Notre Dame football will expose Penn State Thursday night and punch their ticket to the National Championship.
James Franklin's glaring kryptonite
The Nittany Lions have a glaring kryptonite against the top ranked teams in the nations, as Penn State has been unable to win the big games under James Franklin, even though he has built a solid program and has an impressive overall record of 101-41. Franklin is 3-20 against the top 10 and is a depressing 1-10 against the top 5. The Fighting Irish technically are ranked fifth in the country and looks to add to the Penn State narrative of not being able to perform against the elite programs.
PSU was 1-20 against the top 10 entering the CFP before they defeated SMU, who ranked 40 in a strength of schedule, and Boise State, who ranked 66 in strength of schedule. That ranks 11 and 12 as the worst strength of schedules of the 12 teams in the playoffs. SMU and Boise State have 0 wins against teams in the top 25. They rank 10 and 11 of the weakest strength of record of the 12 teams in the playoffs. The only team behind them is Clemson, who SMU lost to. So, it is safe to say that Penn State first two rounds have not been against a team that falls under the elite category.
Paul Finebaum picked the Fighting Irish because of Penn State easier path to the semifinals. "I just can't get excited about Penn State beating at SMU at home and Boise State." Finebaum stated. "The idea Penn State made it to the semifinals, really not having to play anyone yet, is the main reason I like Notre Dame."
Notre Dame football’s historic win streak redefines greatness
Notre Dame football has won eight straight wins over ranked opponents and that is the longest streak in FBS. They have won 12 straight total wins, which also is longest active streak in FBS, and they have dominated their opponents. Notre Dame margin of victory against ranked teams is an average of 18.7 in that win streak.
In their win streak they have beaten their opponents by a combined score of 491-161. They have won 9 consecutive games by double digits, and it is the longest streak in program history since 1949, when Frank Leahy won his fourth National championship title.
The Nittany Lions inability to tackle spells trouble for Penn State
A key struggle for PSU has been tackling, as they rank fourth in the nation for most missed tackles in the power four. Over the last three weeks alone, they’ve missed 57 tackles, a stat that does not go well against a Notre Dame offense which averages 217.5 rushing yards per game, which is 11th best in the country and second best in power four. Irish also leads the power four with 4.2 yards after contact.
Notre Dame run game is led by Jeremiyah Love, but he has sidekicks in Jadarian Price and Riley Leonard. This trio is known for their aggression and ability to break loose for long runs. Love has the longest run in College Football playoff history after his 98 yard touchdown run against Indiana. He averages 7.3 yards per carry, as he has 1,076 rushing yards on 148 carries and has 16 rushing touchdowns on the season. He was limited in the Sugar Bowl to 6 carries, but fans are optimistic he will be able to play.
If Love can’t go or isn’t 100%, Irish are in good hands with Jadarian Price. Price has found the end zone on two rushing plays over 60 yards. Twenty of Price's 110 carries have gone for 10 or more yards, which is tied for 4th best among running backs. Price has 720 yards on the ground for the Irish and averages 6.5 yards per carry.
The Fighting Irish rushing attack ranks 10 in 20 plus yards rushing plays with 28 plays and rank 5 with 17 plays that went for 30 or more yards. The stat doesn't stop there, as they have 11 rushing plays that went for 40 yards or more that is 4 in FBS, and they have the second most 50 plus rushing yard plays in FBS with 8.
Notre Dame’s defense dominates with elite man coverage
The Irish rank second in FBS in man coverage in the 2024 season, as ND runs man coverage near 57% of the time, which is just one of four teams to run man coverage higher than 50% this season. Al Golden has put this Irish defense in the history books, as they rank first in team passing efficiency at 94.1 and allows just 167.4 passing yards per game, which is fifth best in the nation and gives up only 13.6 points per game which is second best in FBS.
The Irish secondary is led by Xavier Watts, Leonard Moore and Christian Gray, as each have eight or more pass deflections this 2024 season. Despite missing their All-American in Benjamin Morrison, the Irish secondary has stepped up big time and locks their opponents down.
All-American, Xavier Watts, was the defensive player of the game in the Sugar Bowl, as he had 37 coverage snaps, was targeted just one time and allowed zero yards. He had seven tackles, six were solo and one was for a loss.
When a wide receiver is targeted, Notre Dame has third best coverage grade according to PFF College Football in the Power four with a 90.3 mark. Penn State only targets a WR 35% of the time which is lowest in FBS.
ND is stacked at the safety position, as Adon Shuler and Watts have caused havoc for opposing teams all year long. PSU tight end, Tyler Warren, is Drew Allar main target, but Adon Shuler allows 50% of tight end targets to be caught according to PFF. Irish defense has dominated tight ends, as they allow only a 40.1 passing rating when a tight end was targeted, which ranks 2nd in FBS, according PFF.
Irish 148 points off turnovers leads FBS
Notre Dame defense has been one of the best in the nation this year as they are gritty and violent. They are led by First-Team All-American, Xavier Watts, who has intercepted 13 passes since the 2023 season, the most among FBS Defensive Players. The Irish have forced a total of 31 turnovers this year and have only given up the ball 13 times. Leonard has made minor mistakes all year long and has only thrown for five interceptions in this 2024 season. Notre Dame football has capitalized as they have scored 148 points off turnovers, which is the most points off turnovers in FBS by 42 points.
Penn State quarterback, Drew Allar, has shown flashes of excellence this season but has struggled against the blitz in their big games. Allar threw two costly interceptions, including the game sealing pick against Oregon in the final two minutes. He also had another interception in their loss against Ohio State back in early November.