It's that time of year again. The annual "Notre Dame should just join a conference and prove they can win a title game before the postseason" conversation is at full force, but this year, everyone might have a slightly better argument than usual.
Despite the Fighting Irish's 10-game winning streak, those two losses to the Miami Hurricanes and Texas A&M Aggies at the beginning of the year are really a sore spot on Notre Dame's resume.
Now, as almost all of the other top teams in the nation prepare to play in their conference championship games, the Irish will be at home, leaving their hopes at the College Football Playoffs in the hands of others.
CFB chaos could spoil Irish's CFP hopes
While it isn't time to hit the panic button quite yet, the Fighting Irish are undeniably not in control of their own future.
The biggest question marks as to who could dash Notre Dame's chances at a second consecutive appearance in the College Football Playoffs? Unsurprisingly, the Alabama Crimson Tide. Somewhat surprisingly, the BYU Cougars.
Now, the Tide's path is much more familiar to its program. All Alabama has to do is defeat the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship, and just like that, the team is back in the Playoffs, as are the Bulldogs.
The Cougars, who are extremely new to this postseason dance, have a similar path. BYU is set to face the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Big 12 Championship. If BYU can pull off the upset win, both teams will get a spot in the Playoff bracket.
Now, that's only four teams, so who else would take a spot in the 12-team Playoffs, virtually pushing the Irish out of contention?
1-5 (they're already in):
- Ohio State Buckeyes (playing in Big Ten Championship)
- Indiana Buckeyes (playing in Big Ten Championship)
- Georgia Bulldogs (Playing in SEC Championship)
- Ole Miss Rebels
- Oregon Ducks
6 (as close to in as possible)
- Oklahoma Sooners
7-8 (in barring complete disaster)
- Texas Tech Raiders (playing in Big 12 Championship)
- Texas A&M Aggies (97.5%)
9-12 (pending Championship results)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish
- Alabama Crimson Tide (playing in SEC Championship)
- James Madison Dukes (playing in Sun Belt Championship)
- Virginia Cavaliers (playing in ACC Championship)
Biggest question marks:
- North Texas Mean Green (playing in AAC Championship)
- Tulane Green Wave (playing in AAC Championship)
- BYU Cougars (playing in Big 12 Championship
Now, because the winners of all Power Conference championship games get a berth, that's four spots already occupied. Plus, the highest-ranked winner of a Group of Five championship game gets a spot as well (there go five spots).
Plus, no matter who wins the Big Ten Championship, both the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Indiana Hoosiers will be in the Playoffs (there are six spots already taken). No matter the result of the Big 12 title game, the Red Raiders are in, and if the Cougars win, they're in as well (there are eight possible spots).
Because of their overall records and strength of schedule arguments, the Ole Miss Rebels, Oregon Ducks, Oklahoma Sooners, and Texas A&M Aggies have also cemented their place in the Playoffs (there are 11 total spots occupied).
With the win over Georgia, Alabama would take up a spot, and just like that, the 12 spots in the College Football Playoffs are occupied before anyone turns their attention to Notre Dame.
So, quite literally, this weekend is a waiting game for the Fighting Irish, and once Saturday concludes, the world will most likely be able to tell if head coach Marcus Freeman has led his team to another berth in the CFP or not.