Notre Dame won a very important game against SEC foe Arkansas on Saturday. In the process, they scored a few style points for their 56-13 dominating performance on the road.
In response, Notre Dame moved up to 21st nationally in both the AP and Coaches poll this week.
Very similar to last year, when Notre Dame dropped as low as 18th in the AP Poll following their loss to Northern Illinois and still qualified for the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff, they are hoping for a similar rise to relevancy this year.
However, it will be much more difficult this year, as they have already suffered two losses, compared to just the single NIU loss last year.
The rankings indicate that the Irish still have a chance. Here are a few things that must go the Irish's way if they hope to make it back to a CFP birth.
Notre Dame must win out, and dominate the opponents
Much like last year, Notre Dame must win out the rest of the season. If they can, they would finish at 10-2 and get back into the conversation.
Notre Dame actually has the highest likelihood of any FBS team to win out, according to ESPN's FPI. The Irish have a 39% chance of winning the remainder of their games according to the metric, with the next closest team being Miami at 21%.
The Irish will be favored in each of their remaining 8 games, starting as 17.5 point favorites against Boise State this week. They will then play NC State, USC, Boston College, Navy, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and Stanford.
Not exactly the toughest of slates...
This brings me to my next point- the Irish must win in STYLE.
Much like they beat up and demolished Arkansas this past weekend, get ready for a lot of big blowout wins if Notre Dame is given the chance. They must not only beat their opponents, but prove they beat them easily, and by more than other opponents.
How many SEC teams are going to beat Arkansas, at Arkansas, by 43 points? Probably not many. Which is why this was important. These games against common opponents serve as measuring sticks should a tiebreaker be needed down the road.
Particularly the games against NC State, USC, and Pittsburgh are games the Irish must win convincingly as those are arguably the three toughest games remaining against some quality power 4 opponents.
The Irish must get some help from Texas A&M and Miami
It was a tough week for Notre Dame in terms of their future opponents success as USC lost as a ranked team to Illinois, NC State lost a bad game to Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh blew a 17 point lead to undefeated Louisville, and Syracuse got blown out by Duke.
They did not get much help, to say the least, and have not all year. In other places, Arkansas lost unbelievably close games to Ole Miss and Memphis, and was maybe two plays away from being 4-0 and ranked before the Notre Dame game. Boise State lost to USF, or would be a 4-0 ranked team. USC was bound for a top 15 spot with a win this weekend before playing the Irish later in October, and will now be unranked. Heck, even Steve Angeli getting hurt impacts the Irish, as Syracuse is unlikely to win many more games after beating Clemson.
Notre Dame needs, now more than ever, for Miami and Texas A&M to keep winning games. If Miami can go 12-0 and win the ACC, they will finish as a top 2 team in the country. That would be huge as Notre Dame only lost by 3, on the road, to that Miami team.
Likewise, Texas A&M has some HUGE games left. If they could find a way to finish 10-2, or even better, 11-1 in the SEC, that would be another quality loss for the Irish against a top 10, or top 5 team.
When the dust settles in November, if Notre Dame is 10-2 with losses to two top 10 teams by a combined 4 points, plus they dominate the rest of their schedule, it would be very difficult to leave the Irish out of the CFP.
The Notre Dame football team needs some teams to lose
Again, much like last year, Notre Dame needs some help from team ranked above them currently.
They did not get much of it this past week. Georgia Tech, ranked 18th, won a double overtime game after trailing most of the game. Alabama, ranked 17th, won a tight game against Georgia and surged up the rankings after they could have lost. Tennessee also came from behind to beat Mississippi State after it trailed most of the way.
All three of those teams would have most likely fallen behind Notre Dame with losses, but remain ahead of them with wins.
Down the stretch, Notre Dame will need some other teams to lose games to inferior opponents if it hopes to make a big jump up the polls.
If teams like Tennessee, Penn State, Florida State, etc, all have two or even better yet, three losses, they will be in the discussion for those final spots come the end of the year. Notre Dame, if they can finish 10-2, with their only losses to really good Miami and Texas A&M teams, will be right in that conversation.
For this week, it would be great for Miami to beat Florida State, and for Alabama to beat Vanderbilt. If Notre Dame can win convincingly against Boise State, they will most likely jump both teams and get back into the top 20 with 7 games still to go.